Let's say ending slaugher DOES have an effect on the horse market. What will happen?

In reality, the number of horses slaughtered in the US is so small (less than half of one percent) it is unlikely to have any affect on the horse market. Let's say that 40,000 or 50,000 horses a year--- less than half of one percent of the number of horses in the US-- somehow has a huge negative affect on the horse market.

The number of horses in North America increases by .07% (because 50,000 horses is .07% of 6.9 million, the number of horses in the US). Everyone panics and the price of horses drops. Now, no one wants to buy a $2,000 horse when they can buy a $1,000 horse.

What will happen? In the short term, there's an excess of horses (again, pretend that .07% can be called an excess), so there will be less demand. Less demand means that prices drop.

Prices drop, which means people sell fewer horses. People can't sell horses as easily, so the bred fewer horses. They can't afford to keep feeding, and breeding horses. They can't afford stud fees or the trouble of breeding new foals. They don't want to breed foals if no one will buy them. In short, they aren't dealing in horses as much as they used to. Only the top breeders that can afford it stay in. People breeding cheap horses quit breeding cheap horses. Sellers are now competing. The horse market is in a bear market.

Since people are breeding, selling, and dealing fewer horses than before, the number of horses decreases. Say one breeder produces 5 foals a year-- that breeder quits breeding. A thousand other breeders do that to. Hey, the horse population is now 5,000 horses short of what it would normally be! This keeps going on until horses are down to pre-slaughter-end levels.

When the number of horses decreases enough, there are going to be fewer horses. Fewer horses mean that there is NOT an excess supply any more; now there's a shortage! Since there's a shortage, buyers have to compete. Now the horse market is in a bull market.

Since there's a larger demand than supply, the prices of horses goes up. People breed more again. Horses sell for more. Horse slaughter doesn't exist, and the market is back to where it normally was!

But if you're in the horse business-- or any business-- you know this happens naturally. Some years horses sell for more, some years for less. All the time. Prices don't just stay the same, and stay there forever. They change according to supply and demand.

Prices fluctuate in ANY market-- just look at the stock market! As supply and demand changes, so do prices. It's a healthy part of any market, and it happens with OR without horse slaughter.

Remember this whole page is based on an unlikely assumption that a minute increase of .07% would even affect the market anyway. Hay prices, gas prices, grain prices, droughts, and such give us much bigger fluctuations in horse prices than slaughter ever could.